Milano-Sanremo: Can Boonen beat Boasson Hagen?

Every year the international cycling community eagerly awaits Milano-Sanremo, the first of the great spring classics. The race is nearly 300 kilometers in length, which makes it the longest one-day race in the professional circuit, and its finale over the Capi, Cipressa and Poggio hills is usually hair-raising! Predicting the winner is like playing the lottery, yet if one scrutinizes the race's palmares one sees that only the best riders have won in Sanremo.

This season the Italians of La Gazzetta dello Sport put the name of Belgian champion Tom Boonen highest on their list of race favourites. His chances are deemed even higher than those of Italian velocisti such as Ale "Jet" Petacchi and Davide Bennati. 2002 race winner Mario Cipollini even remarked: "Boonen is my only favourite".

Definitely, Boonen has come out of the winter extremely strong, and probably stronger and more motivated to perform than in recent years. Boonen's been winning stages in every stage race has entered this year, including stage 1 in the Tirreno-Adriatico - a propos his first ever victory on Italian soil (see picture above). But can Boonen deliver in Sanremo? He does not have the top speed of Mark Cavendish, Petacchi or... Edvald Boasson Hagen, for instance. A race over 300km with Cipressa and Poggio at the end is certainly different from a pre-studied bunch sprint in a stage race, but in recent editions of Milano-Sanremo this has no longer proved to be a major obstacle for the world's fastest men. Just remember Cavendish last season. Nobody - including Boonen - thought he could make it over those two hills. Instead Cavendish delivered one of the most astonishing sprint finishes ever seen, coming from way behind to beat Heinrich Haussler on the line.

Speaking of last year's protagonists: where are they? Cavendish is struggling to find his form back, and is not expected to play any serious role based on his results of the last couple of weeks. Haussler injured his knee in the Algarve tour in February, and has been suffering from that ever since. Haussler's entire spring campaign is now said to be endangered. Fortunately for Team Cervelo there is still a certain Thor Hushovd within their ranks. The tough Norwegian powerhouse is also not yet at his best, however. Still, expect Hushovd to be battling up front. In fact, with shooting star Boasson Hagen winning the final stage of the Tirreno ahead of Petacchi, Norway enters two serious contenders in today's Milano-Sanremo!

That is when the race ends in a bunch sprint, of course. Precisely this level of unpredictability makes Milano-Sanremo always an exciting affair. The Cipressa and Poggio hills offer the possibility for explosive attackers to escape from the bunch. Every year the climb up the Poggio di Sanremo must be one of the most anaerobic exercises these riders perform in the whole season. A la limite, full power, creating a gap big enough before diving down the hairpin bends to the finish with mind on zero. This is where Philippe Gilbert has been trying to get away for several years, in vain. But Gilbert has matured after a tremendous late season charge last year that saw him winning a.o. the Giro di Lombardia and Paris-Tours. Each time by attacking on the final hill. So, will not Boonen but Gilbert be the first Belgian rider to win in Sanremo, nearly 30 years after Fons de Wolf? (note: Andrei Tchmil was technically Belgian when he won in 1999, but the born Russian changed passport as often as he changed underpants back then). The last non-sprinter to win was Fabian Cancellara two years ago. The swiss time trial specialist is once again among the favourites, yet it is doubtful whether he has the right form already. What about in-form Kazakh Maxim Iglinsky? The Astana ace could join Gilbert on the Poggio, hopefully for them with support from another rider or two. Finally, will Lance Armstrong be content to just follow the peloton today?

My pick: Edvald Boasson Hagen
Podium: Tom Boonen, Thor Hushovd
Dark horse: Maxim Iglinsky

The 101st Milano-Sanremo can be viewed live online via Gazzetta TV.

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Milano-Sanremo