L-B-L: Gilbert's Jour de Gloire ?

Cycling's Spring Classics season concludes today with the oldest of them all: Liege-Bastogne-Liege. First organised in 1892, la Doyenne is a tough 260km long struggle through the hills of the Belgian Ardennes with about 3600 Hm in total to conquer. Today, many pro cyclists consider it's the most beautiful and most prestigious classic race to win, which explains why several Grand Tour riders are again lining up at the start today!

The prelude to L-B-L is the Fleche Wallonne race, held last Wednesday. An animated race that saw current world champion Cadel Evans time his effort on the horribly steep Mur de Huy best to counter a dying Alberto Contador (!) in the final metres (see photo). Joacquin Rodriguez came too late, Cunego and Valverde were not strong enough for the win, the Schleck brothers once again lacked the required explosivity on climbs like Huy, and for Philippe Gilbert this climb is just a notch too long. The top 10 was as follows:

1. Cadel Evans (AUS, Team BMC)
2. Joacquin Rodriguez (ESP, Team Katusha)
3. Alberto Contador (ESP, Astana)
4. Igor Anton (ESP, Euskaltel)
5. Damiano Cunego (ITA, Lampre)
6. Philippe Gilbert (BEL, Omega Pharma Lotto)
7. Chris Horner (USA, RadioShack)
8. Alejandro Valverde (ESP, Caisse d'Epargne)
9. Andy Schleck (LUX, Saxo Bank)
10. Ryder Hesjedal (DEN, Garmin)

This weekend the crowd in Wallonia will of course be cheering their hearts out for Philippe Gilbert. Since last year, the Omega Pharma-Lotto ace has become a true protagonist with an impressive string of results throughout the year, culminating in four consecutive victories at the end, including monuments like Giro di Lombardia and Paris-Tours. Last week, Gilbert proved those wins were no coincidence by overpowering everybody on the Cauberg in Holland to take the Amstel Gold Race. Now on home soil in the Ardennes, Gilbert is the top favourite for today's race. He will need to keep his head cool, though. Last season he attacked early and bonked completely when Andy Schleck caught him ... and dropped him. Bearing that in mind, Gilbert may wait until the final climb of St Nicolas, or even until the sprint. In the latter case his main rival will be Alejandro Valverde, already a double winner of L-B-L. But the Spaniard did not appear to be at his best in the Fleche Wallonne. Gilbert's other problem could be lack of support from his team. Only the young talent Jurgen Van den Broeck can be expected to support Gilbert deep in the finale, but yet only so much. Who is going to reel Joaquin Rodriguez back in when the Spanish Katusha rider and former Valverde teammate makes his move? And Alberto Contador: I cannot believe he is just going to ride along. The Tour-Giro-Vuelta winner said that before Wednesday's race as well, but then he was suddenly so keen he opened the final debate on the Mur de Huy! Contador is a winner, and the others better don't give him too much space at the end! Plus he has strong teammates like Iglinsky and Gasparotto.

Tactics are important in this race. The most fearsome climb of the race is the Cote de la Redoute at 40 kilometres from the finish. Amazing duals have been fought there between top riders (remember Frank Vandenbroucke versus Michele Bartoli in 1999!), but many also paid cash for their rush on the Redoute afterwards.

Everything is set up for an exciting finale of the 2010 Spring Classics season! Looking forward to tonight's livestream (Beijing time) with a glass of wine :-)

My pick
Winner: Alberto Contador
Podium: Alejandro Valverde; Damiano Cunego
Dark horse: Joaquin Rodriguez

Links

L-B-L official homepage
L-B-L 1999 Video: Frank VDB vs Michele Bartoli on the Cote de la Redoute
L-B-L 1999: Summary + post race interview VDB