Tour of Flanders: Can Cancellara prevent Boonen's third?

If the past couple of races have demonstrated anything it is that Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara are both at the top of their game. Who gets passed them later today is likely to win the Tour of Flanders, the second major one-day classic after Milano-Sanremo. The second row of favourites is filled with the names of Matti Breschel, teammate of Cancellara at Saxo Bank, Filippo Pozzato and Juan Antonio Flecha. Of those, the Italian champion is sadly out due to the onset of flu.

The weather forecast is not exactly brilliant: cold (max 8 degrees Celsius), windy and rain along the 260km long route. This means the strongest riders should automatically come to the fore and battle it out among themselves at the end. Still, there is the danger of an early breakway group staying ahead for a long time. The pressure will be very much on the Saxo Bank and Quickstep teams to keep their captains within fighting range. That could actually prove difficult. Especially because Quickstep, traditionally the strongest team for these spring classic races, has been totally invisible this season. Boonen himself is in top shape, but he has was left on his own in most races towards the end. Moreover, shadow leader Stijn Devolder, winner of the past two editions of the Tour of Flanders, has been nowhere since his victory exactly a year ago. Devolder claims he is ready for it again, but doubts and critical remarks from team manager Lefevre are plenty. So, can Quickstep carry the weight of the race today? Is the Danish squad of Saxo Bank willing to take over that responsibility? It will be very tricky if they manage to put a strong lieutenant a la Klostergard or O'Grady in the expected breakaway group...

Do not expect the other Belgian team Omega Pharma-Lotto to grab the bull by the horns. Captain Philippe Gilbert is solid, as always, but he still seems to miss the edge that brought him dominant victories in Paris-Tours and Lombardia last autumn. Gilbert will be around today, but I doubt he is strong enough to follow Boonen and Cancellara on the Muur van Geraardsbergen. The foul weather could play in Gilbert's favour, though. His teammates Leif Hoste, Jurgen Roelands and Greg van Avermaet are only expected to play a role on the sidelines today.

With Pozzato out of the race, the Italians do not really seem to have a major contender this year. Former winner Alessandro Ballan is still trying to find his legs back, and for Liquigas riders Quinziato, Oss and Bennati the Ronde may just be a little too much to ask.

The Dutch Rabobank team could benefit from any rivalry between Saxo Bank and Quickstep as its core riders are all in good form. Still, they lack a true winner of a race this calibre. Their old teammate Juan Antonio Flecha, now riding for the new Team Sky, is a dangerman on the other hand. Coming off his first major Flemish win in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad a month ago, Flecha does seem rejuvinated and also he could sneak away if Cancellara and Boonen neutralise themselves deep in the finale.

What can Lance Armstrong do? It is definitely cool that Lance partecipates, as he did also on occasion in the past. Say about him what you want, but the American multiple Tour de France winner does show respect for cycling's history. Five years ago I saw him struggling on the Muur after having worked for his then-teammate Devolder. His Radio Shack team will now mainly focus on defending the interests of Belgian Sebastien Rosseler, who showed good form in last week's E3. Armstrong of course knows that a tough time trial specialist like Rosseler will be a major asset for his team in the upcoming Tour de France in July.

Due to the expected foul weather, several scenarios may unfold. Crashes, punctures and other mechanical defects cannot be excluded at any moment of the race today. Still, I place my money on Tom Boonen to take his third victory in Flanders after 2005 and 2006. Since last week's E3 defeat, he knows he cannot give Cancellara a metre of free space. Boonen has shown remarkable maturity this year and won't get caught again. Plus, Cancellara has not had the most impressive results in this race so far. The Swiss champion did agree on that during press conferences, but added that he has learnt his lesson the hard way and that he definitely wants to add the Tour of Flanders trophy to the Paris-Roubaix and Milano-Sanremo victories he has already scored in his professional career.

My race pick: Tom Boonen
Podium: Fabian Cancellara, Juan Antonio Flecha
Dark horse: Matti Breschel

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